Monday, July 18, 2011

Inflation? Not Sold Yet

With gas prices high and food prices rising, many people are feeling the squeeze.  This begs the question: Is inflation a concern?  I say no, not yet at least, and the chart from the St. Louis Fed (via the Pragmatic Capitalist) illustrates why:


As the chart shows, essentially all prices outside gasoline are staying relatively flat.  While there has been a modest uptick as of late, as Paul Krugman points out, inflation is still way below trend. 

That isn’t to say inflation won’t eventually be a problem.  In fact, I have seen charts, given the recent move up, that demonstrate there could be higher inflation in the near future.  Still, given the small uptick in inflation, high unemployment, and lack of credit moving through the system, inflation should be relatively tame and I certainly assuage only a very small probability to hyperinflation.