Monday, October 20, 2014

Oil Down, Good

There has been a big fuss made over lower oil prices and they are cratering:


So the logic goes: lower oil prices = less global demand for oil = weaker economy.  Makes sense.  Except in the US lower oil prices = more cash available for other consumer purchases = stronger economy.  And in reality it’s spikes in oil prices, not dives, that correspond with recessions:


Maybe the market is signaling something different this time, but in the past lower prices have been good for the economy and stocks.

*Please see the important disclosures that apply to this commentary HERE.  The above charts are for illustrative purposes only and do not attempt to predict actual results of any particular investment.