Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Good US Consumer

Stocks haven’t had the greatest start to 2015.  Regardless, economic fundamentals are seemingly still solid.  Here are 3 charts indicating consumption could be tailwind in spite of the latest retail sales report:
  1. The most apparent, oil is cratering and along with it gas prices, giving consumers more funds to spend on retail items they likely don’t need:
  2. Wages are likely heading higher, so consumers can use that extra income to get that totally unnecessary Apple Watch.
  3. And less of that increasing income is going to service debt, so maybe sometime soon Americans can go back to the good old days of maxing out their credit cards!

Of course none of this means stocks can’t go down.  But historical returns suggests a drawdown of greater than 20% is highly unlikely.

*Please see the important disclosures that apply to this commentary HERE.  The above charts are for illustrative purposes only and do not attempt to predict actual results of any particular investment.