The Inflation Concern

I am still not terribly worried about near-term inflation; although, I am paying more attention to the intermediate-term.  Many of the disinflation/deflation prognosticators I read regularly, who have been right, are changing their tune slightly, and this is causing me pause. Eventually we will transition from this disinflationary secular bear/range bound market to an inflationary secular bull. 

However, here is why nothing is imminent: until wages move, we won’t have inflation, and wages have been stagnant:

Second, if inflation does get out of hand an equity allocation should do quite nicely:

The charts indicate basically that inflation doesn’t appear to be a threat now, but if it does become one then stocks should help weather that storm.  One caveat is that inflation is the only thing in my opinion that will cause interest rates to rise (via the Fed), so that could have a near-term negative impact on stocks.

The views and opinions expressed in this blog are those of the author(s) noted and may or may not represent the views of Capital Analysts, Inc. or Lincoln Investment.  04/13

Blog Note Update

Posting has been slow of late, and for that I apologize.  I have re-tooled the message for three main reasons:

1. To give the blog a more distinct and personal feel
2. To make posts timelier and more scheduled
3. To tie the blog into other social media

Here is what I came up with:

1. Posts will now exclusively cover how various things impact someone’s portfolio, and how to capitalize on them or how to mitigate risk. It could be a macro event, a theory, or just something which occurred to me from reviewing countless research.  Regardless, it will focus on possible impact on the markets.
2. I will post twice a week on Tuesday and Thursday with a more precise message.
3. I will tie in a Twitter account and link it to other platforms, like Linkedin.  When this happens I will outline where to follow.

So, look for regular posting as outlined above starting Thursday.  And if you have any questions, comments, want me to touch on something, or anything else please email me – zabrams@capitalavisorsltd.com.