Friday, July 15, 2011

Gold’s Value?

I was alerted to this MarketWatch article on Gold, which raised many of the issues I have with the precious metal:
  • We aren’t near a real high.  That was around $4,000, about 30 years ago.  Today, Gold hovers a little over $1,500.
  • If Gold is a pure inflation hedge, why did it lose value in real terms over the last 30 years?
  • The U.S. Dollar (USD) seems nowhere near collapse or to the point where it loses its status as the primary medium of exchange any time soon.
  • Despite the rise in commodity prices, many aspects of the economy are still deflating (e.g. housing).
  • While not perfect, the USD is still the best currency around.  
  • Gold tends to do well in periods of uncertainty; however, if you take that to the endgame – a complete collapse of government – will gold still have value?  I would rather have gasoline, water, ammo, or canned food.
None of the above comments are meant to infer Gold can’t move higher, in fact when compared to its previous bubble Gold still has room to run.  That being said, the idea that Gold will soon replace the USD as the way we exchange goods and services or that it will even be a perfect hedge against the USD appears to fly in the face of logic and history.