Will Calculated Risk ultimately be right on the bottom call? While I don’t have the answer, much of what I read points to the end of the drop in home prices in the near future. Some of the more pessimistic prognosticators are calling for another 10% drop. Even if we have another 10% drop from here the damage is done as we are already 30% off the peak. Further, individuals and institutions are more prepared than at the peak in prices.
It should also be noted that housing starts have almost certainly bottomed, making them no longer a drag on economic output.
The worst in housing appears to be over or close to being over. I certainly am not trying to say we will have a massive rebound in prices. In fact I think it will be long process, and am trying to relay that home prices won’t continue their downward decent forever and the turnaround will probably be sooner rather than later.
