In my last post, I pointed to some evidence, which demonstrated how far off the 2011 consensus was. Despite that, I will provide the 2012 consensus below:
- Projections range from very bearish to very bullish. I expected this given the broad range of opinions I read.
- Even among sell side analysts there seems to be more divergence with S&P 500 performance projections ranging from -9% to 20%.
- The average S&P 500 performance projection was about 7%; however, this is usually the case.
- The S&P 500 EPS earnings projections range from $96 to $110.
- The average S&P 500 EPS earnings projection is about $102.
- Those who are bullish tend to think many of the “tail risks” out there (European collapse, Israel-Iran, China hard landing, etc.), while present, and are unlikely to happen.
- Those who are bearish tend to think these risks are possible and at the very least will drag on the market.
- The ultra bulls think that we could see some large upside surprises in the US economy – GDP, unemployment.
- The ultra bears think the “tail risks” are probable (especially Europe).
There you have it, the 2012 consensus opinions from my readings. My next post will outline my thoughts regarding these projections and I will provide you with a few portfolio ideas on how to play this.
